The German government recently announced that it would deploy a naval frigate to the Indo-Pacific in 2021. For the first time since 2002, the German navy will be deployed in the Asian sea. But what is the purpose of sending warships to the Indo-Pacific of Germany? Many say it is a message to China. Again, some say it is a message to friends in Germany. The first question, however, is whether this is a reflection of a change in German strategic thinking.
Why the change in Germany’s strategic thinking?
An insight into what German state officials are thinking can be found in a secret document leaked in 2016. The German newspaper Der Spiegel leaked the 102-page strategic forecast for the German army’s planning office until 2040. This is the first time Germany has produced such a document since World War II. The paper says that this document was written in 2015. Geopolitical developments until 2040 are discussed among six possibilities. The first two possibilities are primarily about the EU’s problems; That being said, the EU will somehow survive by maintaining strong ties across the Atlantic, even in the midst of widespread problems. In between, Germany’s security focus will be on working for peace with the help of international organizations.
The third possibility is the escalation of tensions in the Western world; At the center of which will be the rise of nationalism and terrorism. The fourth possibility is the economic downturn in Europe and China. These are the two main markets in Germany. So their recession means that Germany will also face a serious economic threat.
The fifth possibility is the increase in competition with the West in the East. Here the West refers to Europe and the United States; The EU has been left out. The East, on the other hand, has been defined as China and Russia. However, they do not think that this tension could turn into a big conflict. Their idea is that states will avoid war to keep trade afloat. Some Eastern European countries may side with Russia in this conflict.
The sixth possibility is the most deadly. They say it means the EU will collapse completely; And at the same time the United States will not be able to hold on to its global leadership. Problems around the world will take a deadly turn, and no one in the Western world will be able to stop them.
This analysis means that the Germans think that the days ahead will be much more uncertain. An analysis by the US think tank Geopolitical Futures, or GPF, seeks to simplify Germany’s problems. The 2008 recession ripped through the EU. Under economic pressure, each country has to think individually. The rift is widening as the Syrian war continues to push thousands of refugees into Europe. Eastern European countries allow refugees to pass over their countries; Because the refugees wanted to go to Western Europe. Then in 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea from Ukraine, there was a rift in NATO. Germany is heavily dependent on Russian gas; On the other hand, the United States wants Germany so that it does not depend on Russia. The countries of Eastern Europe are moving in the opposite direction of Germany; Those tend to be more dependent on the United States to deal with the Russian threat.
The GPF says nationalism will hamper trade in Europe; Which would hit Germany’s export-oriented economy. In other words, the structure of the EU will continue to be questioned. Germany was in the middle of the EU not just because of economic interests. The Germans think that by staying inside the EU, Germany will be able to avoid conflict with its other rival on European soil. The other rival is France. On the other hand, after 2014, Germany began to realize that the interests of the EU and the United States could no longer be considered as its own. So it’s time to fix the strategy according to your own interests. The GPF, however, says that if the Germans begin to feel insecure, they will increase their military budgets; Which is what the United States has been wanting for a long time.
How do the Germans want to face the challenge in front of them?
In an article in the British Royal United Services Institute, Maximilian Terhall, a professor at the University of Potsdam in Germany, says that the 21st century strategy needs to be redefined with a different approach to the idea that NATO was formed in 1949. Where it was stated in 1949 that NATO was established to keep the United States inside and at the same time to keep Russia out and keep Germany under control. Now, in the 2020s, we have to put the first two parts of the word together and put China in place of Germany. He says the Chinese are targeting weaker countries in the European Union in order to exert their influence. He says Italy and Greece, in particular, are falling prey to Chinese investment in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic. According to him, Germany should lead Europe in such a weak time in the EU and convince the United States that Europe is needed to control China. Tehhal sees Russia as a threat to Europe; And he thinks that if the United States gets involved in a conflict with China, Russia will take advantage of its influence on Europe’s borders. Then those who say Russia’s power has diminished will be forced to think twice. He favors increasing the military budgets of all European countries. In doing so, he seeks to keep the United States interested in Europe and at the same time to address the Russian threat. He says Europe must unite and the United States must hold on to the West’s economic and military leadership over the world. And in that sense, the new German chancellor after Angela Merkel will have to try to lead Europe, realizing the ongoing global geopolitical competition.
Dominique Eillers, an official with the German military’s procurement directorate, is not so optimistic about Europe’s agreement. Especially when the United States is deploying its power against China, Europe needs to think differently, just as the major European countries need to think differently. In an article in War on the Rocks, he cited the German government’s Indo-Pacific strategy, published last September. He says that since World War II, anti-war sentiment in Germany has been so strong that it is unacceptable for anyone to formulate strategies based on their own interests in light of geopolitical realities. But Germany now puts that geopolitical reality at the center of its strategy. China’s economic influence in Europe is a threat to Germany’s economic interests, so Germany will want to control Chinese influence in Europe. On the other hand, the huge market of 400 million people in the Indo-Pacific and the industrial infrastructure built on its huge manpower are just as important for maintaining Germany’s economic interests as the security challenges of important seas in the region are a threat to Germany’s security. That is why Germany has decided to send a naval ship to the Indo-Pacific to protect its economic interests. In doing so, Germany will work with other European countries and the United States to protect international law, as well as implement its own strategy to protect its own economic interests. Germany certainly does not want to be forced to take sides in the US-China conflict; Rather, for the first time since World War II, Germany is seeking its own identity. Yet in the near future Germany may not engage the Indo-Pacific in conflict with the United States; Instead, Germany is deploying its economic power to the United States.
How long has the German military been under NATO?
According to a report in Deutsche Welle, the stay of German troops in Afghanistan has been extended for another 10 months until January 2022. The Germans are asking how successful this mission actually was. The mission has cost about 20 billion by 2016. About 1,300 German troops are stationed in Afghanistan. So far, 59 soldiers have been killed in the clashes. Sonka Knitzel, a professor at the University of Potsdam, says the Germans had no strategic plans to move to Afghanistan. They have blindly followed the United States and NATO. The then German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder sent troops to Afghanistan to show sympathy for the United States after 9/11. The thought was that the troops would be repatriated within six months. Chancellor Angela Merkel later said that by maintaining troops in Afghanistan, Germany was maintaining its influence between NATO, the United Nations and the EU. So the decision to withdraw troops from there has been delayed for two decades. German troops stationed in Afghanistan have been told it is not their responsibility to fight the Taliban. On the other hand, the commanders of the multinational forces went to war and did not find the German troops on their side and called them vitu.
The Germans have not been able to break out of their culture of erasing World War II memories. So the German leaders are not able to make the political decision to tell the soldiers to fight. The Germans went on a NATO mission; But for fear of their history, they did not fight side by side with other Western countries in implementing NATO’s goals. They have always been ‘somewhat involved’ in NATO. That is why the Germans could not participate in the strategic decisions of Afghanistan; They were given the importance of the second saree. Nietzsche says the strategic failure in Afghanistan has called into question the German military’s loyalty to the German leadership. That is why the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AFD, is gaining popularity among the German military. Nietzsche says the Germans are now questioning what it means to raise a military force at a cost of more than 50 billion a year because of the Afghanistan mission. The German government has no answer to this question.
The German military’s website says there are currently about 2,600 German troops stationed in various parts of the world. The mission of all of them is to maintain peace. In addition to the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan, there are 900 German troops deployed under the auspices of the United Nations to assist the French in Mali in West Africa. In short, none of this is Germany’s own mission. But the German leadership feels that these missions under NATO and the United Nations are important for maintaining German influence internationally.
New German Defense Policy… How Real?
In 2016, a white paper from the German Ministry of Defense mentioned similar concerns. German Chancellor Angela Merkel wrote in the introduction to the white paper that recent years have shown that, no matter how successful the European system formed since World War II, it is not permanent. In the twenty-first century Europe will change the borders of the state through military force; No one thought of it. According to a report in the defense magazine Army Technology, Germany has so far deployed its military forces under NATO. But the recent situation has forced the Germans to adopt an active defense policy. At one time, Germany refrained from sending troops without a UN Security Council resolution, or outside the framework of NATO. Now the Germans are beginning to think of deploying military forces outside of NATO as normal.
The white paper called for an increase in Germany’s military budget. Germany wants to increase its military membership to 14,300 by 2023. However, Germany’s military has long suffered from low budgets. A 2014 Washington Post report stated that most of the Navy’s submarines were out of service; Less than 40 percent of the Army’s boxer armored vehicles are operational; Of the 42 NH90 helicopters in the Navy, only six are in a state of flight. The helicopter purchase project is in such a predicament that despite the target of purchasing 200 helicopters, only 72 are being purchased now. As much as the military budget is being talked about increasing, it is actually insignificant compared to the need. And how practical it will be to implement the new geopolitical strategy is questionable.
Since World War II, the Germans have been working to implement the strategic objectives of the United States and NATO. Although Germany’s position in the EU seems to be mainly for economic reasons, it is also to avoid a conflict with France. But the changed world order in the twenty-first century is teaching Germany the reality. While China has become more important to the United States than Europe, Germany is struggling to attract US attention to Europe. Conversely, as German dependence on Russian gas increases, so does the leadership of Berlin. Since the end of the Cold War, there has been no fear of a major war, and the German military budget has been stingy on rusty German weapons. And extremist nationalism is emerging in Germany in a bid to politically legitimize its meaningless involvement in the war in Afghanistan by blindly following NATO. The Germans are realizing that the world order created after the Cold War is now completely collapsing. So they have no choice but to follow the geopolitical reality. However, the 2040 strategy suggests that Germany, with the exception of NATO, the EU and the United States, is still not confident enough to pursue its own foreign policy.
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