Geopolitics of Algeria

 

Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Algeria since February 22.  For the fifth time in a row, President Abdulaziz Butaflika wants to run in the election.  People are saying that the 72-year-old Butaflika is not only trying to stay in power for extra time – he is also unfit to run the state.  The president, who has been in power since 1999, suffered a stroke in 2013.  In the following year, he won the election for the fourth time, though not in public.  This time, under public pressure, Butaflika announced on March 11 that he no longer wanted to be president for a fifth term;  However, he said he would postpone the election.  Although people on the streets of the capital, Algiers, see this as a new scam on Boutaflica, Algeria’s problems are not limited to Boutaflica.  The country’s problems are deep and it has a vast geopolitics. Algeria gained independence from France in 1962 at the cost of more than three million lives.  Butaflika joined the War of Independence in 1956 at the age of 19, and came to power at a very young age under Houari Boumédiene..  In 1973, at the age of 26, he became the country’s foreign minister, and led the “non-aligned movement” in the 1970s and 1980s.

After the death of President Boumediene in 1986.  Butayika lost her prestige and later left the country.  1970s.  After the fall in oil prices in the international market, the ruling party is a multi-party democracy.  The emergence of Islamic parties, which were almost certainly complete in the 1991 elections.  Towards the country.  In that respect, the Islamic Salvation Front was going to get a majority.  Fearing a change in the constitution, the military immediately seized power and canceled the election.  This led to a 10-year civil war that killed at least 1.5 million people.  In a discussion of Butaflika’s biography, Al-Jazeera says that Butaflika returned to politics in 1999, ending the war, and was elected president with 74 percent of the vote.  Butaflika was able to revive the economy as the oil market was booming at the time.  Butafrika did not allow the movement to grow in the country during the Arab Spring in 2011 by giving massive encouragement to the people.  But when the oil market started falling again in 2014, the country’s economy was in danger again.  Algeria’s economy is totally dependent on oil and gas exports.  Algeria has the third largest oil reserves in the world and the 10th largest gas reserves.  With the money that the government earns from exporting oil and gas to Europe and America, the government subsidizes various services for the people.  Most of the food and vegetables are import-dependent.  In other words, Algeria buys food and other food items with the help of oil exports.  “The Algerian economy is not built on a long-term solid foundation,” said Daglia Gramey, an analyst at the Kangei Middle East Center, in an article in the Yazbek thinktank The Broker.  When the price of oil falls in the international market, the people of the country suffer.  In 2013, the country’s foreign exchange reserves were ‘200 billion, while the oil market was strong.  Anadolu Agency says that in November 2016, the reserves came down to 72 billion.  The country’s central bank says reserves will fall to 60 billion in 2019 and 6 billion in 2020.  Due to its long-term import-dependence, industrial development in Algeria has been much less than it needs to be.  And agriculture contributes only 6 percent of GDP, which is not enough for the country’s food production.  About 45 per cent of food and 72 per cent of medicines are imported.  The change of government in Algeria, however, does not mean that the country will return to normalcy easily, given the fragile economic base of the country.

Not only oil and gas, but also Algeria’s geographical location has threatened to kill the country.  According to analysts, Morocco, Mauritania, Mali, its own, Libya and Tunisia, along with 1,200 km of coastline in the Mediterranean, are important to Algeria through the Maghreb in North Africa and the Sahel in West-Central Africa.  Algeria’s population is also the largest in the region – four million.  Six percent of the country’s population is under the age of 35, or a source of huge workforce.  But the country’s breakers are now 16 percent;  Among the youth, it is 25 percent.  The stability of neighboring Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Mali, Mauritania and itself depends on Algeria’s security capabilities.  Mali, itself, Libya and Tunisia militant groups are controlled by Algerian security forces with a force of 500,000 troops, 120 warplanes and 340 helicopters.  But the country has to spend 10 billion a year to retain the military;  Which is becoming difficult in the current economy.  The role of Algeria in controlling the flow of refugees from Africa to Europe is crucial.  France and the United States are receiving a lot of support from Algeria in their military operations in Mali and themselves.

The rest is gone, but the Algerian problem is not going away;  Because the country has been under one rule for a long time, there is no alternative political party now.  Although the introduction of a leader is relatively easy, changing the foundation of the country’s economy is problematic.  In an article on Radio France International, Amanda Murray says that if a weak economy destabilizes Algeria, then security in Europe, not just Africa, will be disrupted.  So Europeans, especially France and Italy, are concerned about the security situation in Algeria.  If Algeria is in trouble, Europe will not only be deprived of the guarantee of oil and gas, but also the security of its Mediterranean coast.  Not a change of leadership in Algeria, but a stable chariot for the country will now be more important for Europe.